Benchmarks worth knowing by heart
| Odds | Implied probability | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 1,10 | 90,9 % | Near-certainty, as priced |
| 1,50 | 66,7 % | Two chances in three |
| 2,00 | 50,0 % | A coin flip |
| 3,00 | 33,3 % | One chance in three |
| 5,00 | 20,0 % | One chance in five |
| 10,00 | 10,0 % | One time in ten |
Always check your instincts against these benchmarks: “he's got a good 50% chance” on odds of 2.60 amounts to claiming a 30%+ edge over the bookmaker. Possible, but it deserves a justification.
Implied does not mean true
On a 1X2 priced 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60, the implied probabilities total 105.8%. Those 5.8 extra points are the margin: the probability the market actually estimates is therefore lower than each implied probability taken on its own.
To compare your estimate with the market's properly, first devig the odds with the fair odds calculator.
Frequently asked questions
How do you know whether a price is genuinely generous?
By comparing it with the fair probability, margin removed, rather than with your instinct. Stats&Bet runs that comparison continuously across French bookmakers and only flags prices that beat the fair odds.
Can the probabilities sum to exactly 100%?
Only on a market with no margin, which does not exist at a traditional bookmaker. Betting exchanges come close, taking a commission on winnings rather than loading the odds.
How do you know if your estimated probability beats the bookmaker's?
The only honest arbiter is the closing line. If your bets regularly get odds above the market's final price (positive CLV), your estimate carries information. Otherwise it is just noise.