Football

Double chance and draw no bet calculator

Markets derived from the 1X2 — double chance and draw no bet — follow mathematically from the main market's odds. Bookmakers often price them with a higher margin, betting that the punter won't do the maths.

Result

Enter the three 1X2 prices: the tool strips the margin and gives you the fair odds of each derived market. If your bookmaker's price is higher, the bet has value.

How derived markets are worked out

After devigging the 1X2 with the logarithmic method, you get three fair probabilities p1, pX, p2 that sum to exactly 1.

Double chance 1X = 1 / (p1 + pX)
Double chance 12 = 1 / (p1 + p2)
Draw no bet (home) = 1 / (p1 / (p1 + p2))

Draw no bet reads differently: on a draw the stake is returned, so the event reduces to a duel between the two wins.

The margin trap on derived markets

On the French market it is not unusual to see a 1X2 priced at 6% margin and the matching double chance at 9 or 10%. The punter picking double chance “to be safe” therefore pays a safety premium far heavier than they imagine.

The opposite happens too: some operators leave automatically generated double chance prices hanging, unadjusted after a 1X2 move. That is exactly the kind of gap detection tools hunt for.

Frequently asked questions

Do value betting tools cover derived markets?

Stats&Bet scans double chance, draw no bet, totals and BTTS just like the 1X2. Those markets are often less well adjusted by French operators, and therefore richer in exploitable gaps.

Double chance or 1X2 — which is better?

It depends solely on the price. Double chance cuts variance, but if its margin is higher than the 1X2's, it costs more in expectation. Always compare the displayed price with the fair odds computed here.

Is draw no bet available at every French bookmaker?

Most licensed operators offer it on football, sometimes labelled “refunded if draw” or “DNB”. On secondary competitions it is frequently missing or priced with a very high margin.

Find value bets without hunting for them

Stats&Bet continuously compares the odds of ANJ-licensed French bookmakers with the market's fair odds and alerts you on Telegram, suggested stake included. The real results are public.

Try it free

Sports betting carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. In France, call 09 74 75 13 13 for help (standard rate). Gambling involves risk. Strictly for adults. Stats&Bet is a statistical analysis tool and never takes bets: wagers are placed exclusively with operators licensed by the French ANJ.