This calculator works out the hedge stake to place at another bookmaker to turn an uncertain free bet into a guaranteed profit, and gives you the conversion rate achieved.
Why a free bet isn't worth its face value
With a €100 free bet at odds of 6.00, you don't collect €600 but €500: the stake is not returned.
The theoretical value of a free bet is that profit times the probability it lands — roughly 70 to 85% of its face value if you play it properly.
The hedging technique
The principle: play the free bet on high odds at the bookmaker granting it, then cover the opposite outcome with real money at another operator.
- €100 free bet on odds of 6.00 → potential profit of €500.
- Hedging the opposite outcome at odds of 1.20 → a €416.67 stake returning €500.
- If the free bet wins: €500 − €416.67 = 83,33 €. If it loses: €500 − €416.67 = 83,33 €.
That is an 83% conversion rate, guaranteed in both scenarios. The higher the odds played with the free bet, the better the rate — provided you find a low-margin hedge.
The rules to check at French bookmakers
- The minimum odds. Most licensed operators require minimum odds (often 1.50 or 2.00) to use a free bet.
- The expiry date. French free bets expire quickly, sometimes within 7 days.
- Splitting. Some bookmakers allow partial use, others don't — that changes the hedging strategy.
- Cash-out is generally barred on a bet funded by a free bet.
- Wagering requirements : some bonuses must be replayed several times before withdrawal. Read the terms — the ANJ requires them to be published.
Frequently asked questions
What do you do with your capital once the free bets are converted?
Bonuses run out fast: long-run profitability comes from value bets. Stats&Bet detects them continuously across French operators and publishes its real results, so you can judge on the evidence.
What conversion rate should you aim for?
Between 70 and 80% with a standard hedge at another French operator. Above 85% you generally need a betting exchange or an exceptionally tight hedge price.
Should you play the free bet on high odds?
Yes, that is the main lever: at 2.00 the recoverable value caps out around 50%, at 6.00 it exceeds 80%. Be careful though — the higher the odds, the heavier the hedge stake, so you need the capital to match.
Do bookmakers allow this?
Using a free bet is obviously allowed, and hedging it at a competitor is too, since that happens outside their perimeter. Opening multiple accounts or using third-party identities to stack bonuses, however, is fraud — punished by account closure and confiscation of winnings.